In June, we included a “Looking Ahead” section in our annual Giving USA 2025 presentation—a forward-focused conversation about the economic indicators most likely to shape fundraising in the coming months. The response was overwhelmingly positive, with many agreeing about how crucial it is to keep a close watch on this year’s trends. That’s why we’re back with a quick update, and we’d also love to hear what’s on your mind.
Now more than ever, understanding the economic forces that shape giving allows us to respond with empathy, resilience, and thoughtful strategy. By staying informed about the economic landscape, we position ourselves to better serve our missions and the people who depend on us.
This post revisits four key indicators and provides an update, with definitions to help fundraisers of all backgrounds understand why these metrics matter. Whether you’re a seasoned strategist or just starting out, these indicators offer a window into donor behavior, giving potential, and the broader forces influencing philanthropy.
The latest Consumer Price Index figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released just last week, show that inflation edged up another 0.2% since last month, for a total of 0.4% since our Giving USA presentation on June 25th, 2025. While the pace of inflation has eased compared to its recent peak, overall prices remain more than 26% higher than they were before the pandemic.
For donors—especially those making modest gifts—these elevated costs can make charitable giving feel more challenging. At the same time, nonprofits continue to grapple with rising expenses to provide essential services. This dual squeeze heightens fundraising complexity and underscores the need for empathy, adaptability, and inventive approaches to donor engagement.
All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision regarding interest rates, expected in the coming days. The Fed is anticipated to lower rates by 25 to 50 basis points, a move intended to help curb inflation while supporting ongoing economic growth.
Fundraisers should pay close attention to these developments, as interest rate changes can ripple through the economy, affecting both household budgets and donor confidence. We’ll be watching closely to see how the Fed’s actions influence inflation trends in the months ahead, and what that could mean for philanthropy.
Since June 2025, the S&P 500 has continued its strong upward trajectory, reaching new record highs over the summer and maintaining robust momentum into September. This growth has been driven by resilient corporate earnings, optimism around artificial intelligence and technology stocks, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve that rate hikes may soon pause as inflation cools. However, volatility remains as investors weigh the potential for slower economic growth and ongoing global uncertainties.
Looking ahead, we will be closely monitoring shifts in market sentiment, especially around Federal Reserve policy updates, inflation data, and any signs of a broader economic slowdown. Sustained market strength typically encourages higher-value charitable gifts, particularly those tied to appreciated assets like stock. On the other hand, abrupt market corrections can make donors more cautious, especially with major and planned gifts.
For nonprofits, this means now is an opportune time to engage donors in conversations about gifts of stock while the market is strong, but also to prepare flexible strategies should volatility return. By staying informed about market trends and being proactive in stewardship, organizations can position themselves to weather market changes and maximize fundraising potential in both strong and uncertain times.
According to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real DPI climbed another 0.4% in July 2025, continuing its positive momentum and now standing 3.4% higher than at the start of the year. This steady growth means more households may be feeling more financially secure, which is a promising indicator for the philanthropic sector as we gear up for the fall fundraising season.
What’s especially encouraging is that increases in disposable income are particularly good for annual and sustaining donors. These supporters form the backbone of healthy baseline fundraising and ongoing engagement. Nonprofits may see renewed interest in broad-based campaigns and grassroots support, as people are more open to giving when their budgets allow. However, ongoing inflation and cost pressures remain relevant, so fundraisers should continually monitor shifts in disposable income and adapt their strategies as needed.
Looking ahead, we’ll be closely monitoring the next DPI report, set for release on September 26, 2025. Sustained increases in DPI can fuel optimism for a robust year-end giving cycle, particularly from annual and sustaining donors, but a dip could make that more challenging, requiring renewed stewardship and creative engagement.
Since June 2025, consumer sentiment has steadily declined, falling from 61.7 in June to 55.4 in September’s preliminary reading, released last week, which is down 21% compared to September 2024. This drop could reflect growing concerns about inflation, jobs, and trade, with nearly half of consumers reporting that high prices are negatively impacting their standard of living. However, rising disposable personal income, as noted above, offers a counterbalance, potentially boosting optimism for donors even as sentiment wavers. For nonprofits, this signals donor caution and potential pressure on broad-based giving, but also presents an opportunity to engage those whose finances have improved.
As we navigate an ever-shifting economic landscape, it’s more important than ever for nonprofit leaders and fundraisers to stay agile, attentive, and informed. With the final quarter of the calendar year approaching, awareness of changing trends and a willingness to adapt are keys to success.
The nonprofit sector thrives when it actively observes, interprets, and engages in conversations around these economic signals. By sharing insights and asking questions together, we can better manage uncertainty and craft thoughtful plans for what comes next. By understanding how this data is tracked (even as that might change), interpreting data with intention, shaping strategy proactively, and nurturing donor relationships, organizations can remain resilient and amplify their impact…regardless of market fluctuations.
Stay tuned for Part 2, where we’ll explore what fundraisers should consider heading into Q4. And if you’re ready to go deeper, join us on October 16th for Beyond the Report, our live discussion on these trends and more.
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